（英翻中）
春暖花开的时节，人们对经济前景也似乎变得格外乐观。
欧洲央行(ECB)理事诺沃特尼(Ewald Nowotny)上周表示，欧洲经济确实出现复苏的苗头。达拉斯联储(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)主席费舍尔(Richard Fisher)上个月称，经济显露积极信号。
问题是，大多数类似言论都是一派胡言！以下是对目前充斥着的各种经济复苏论的一一反驳。
经济复苏论一：经济已停止恶化。
美联储公开市场委员会(Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee)上周宣称，经济在继续收缩，但下降速度有所放缓。言下之意是政府不需再出台新的经济刺激措施。
但是，经济仍在萎缩，只不过不像之前那么迅猛而已。人们依然越来越穷。这与经济真正开始复苏有着天壤之别。
经济复苏论二：政府已经出台应对措施了，所以大家不要抱怨了。
这是世界各国央行官员的典型言论。意思是，我们已经下调利率，增发货币并刺激需求，计算机程序模型告诉我们，这样做了之后，经济就将开始复苏。
可是，如果政府对经济危机的判断错误，给出的对策也错了，那该怎么办？仅仅给病人吃药并不能保证病人一定会康复
经济复苏论三：股市预示经济复苏。
确实，欧洲道琼斯Stoxx 600指数已经收复年初所有跌幅并全身散发新一轮牛市的气息。4月份，该指数攀升13%，为该指数自1987年开始以来的最大月度涨幅。世界其他主要股指也出现类似反弹。
然而，股市对于未来经济的预测并不比我们其他人准确多少。对于过去两次经济复苏，股市却至少预测了12次；过去5次经济衰退，股市也预测了9次。准确率并不比抛硬币强多少。信贷紧缩的一个教训是，我们不该再迷信市场了，因为，市场没有预言到衰退，而这一切都发生在专业投资者的眼皮底下。所以，我们凭什么相信同样这帮人可以预测到经济的复苏？
经济复苏论四：企业高管越发乐观。
许多大名鼎鼎的商界名人都信心满满。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)首席经济学家Jim O'Neill上周上调其对明年经济增长的预期后称，经济复苏的"绿芽"已经成长为花朵。
千万别当真！企业管理层永远是乐观派。乐观是他们的职责。成为管理者的条件之一就是要永远挑战极限。悲观的现实主义者从来进不了决策层，虽然他们十有八九是正确的。
所以，目前的实际情况是，没有人知道全球经济正去向何方。这是一场自二战以来最严重的经济衰退。经济复苏论宣告破产，我们尚未脱离困境，并且将来很长一段时间都将是这样。
--------------这是今天翻的，觉得不错，和大家分享下；尤其是要给准备再次杀入股市的同志们，小心你的口袋！
原文如下：
Green Shoots’ Won’t Lead Economies Out of Woods: Matthew Lynn
Commentary by Matthew Lynn
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Spring has arrived and everyone is fed up talking about the greatest depression since the 1930s. So now there are “green shoots” everywhere.
On one day last week, Bloomberg carried 118 articles and research reports from many sources in which the most durable of horticultural metaphors was deployed. They weren’t isolated cases.
“I do indeed see green shoots for the European economy,” Ewald Nowotny, a council member of the European Central Bank, said at a press conference in Vienna last week.
“We’re beginning to see some healthy signs -- the stirrings of what I call green shoots,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said last month.
The trouble is, most of them are nonsense. Over the next few months, you are going to hear a whole series of increasingly ridiculous and bogus signals of recovery trumpeted as if they heralded the end of the recession. All will be meaningless.
Here’s a fool’s guide to four types of “green shoots,” all of which can be ignored by anyone trying to work out where the economy is going.
One: It’s no longer getting worse.
“The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower,” the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said in a statement last week in which it signaled that -- yup, you guessed it -- the emergence of all those “green shots” meant it didn’t have to do much more to stimulate the economy. So, to get this straight, the economy is still falling off a cliff, only not falling quite so fast as it was a few months ago. It is, however, still getting smaller, which means everyone is getting poorer. At the risk of spoiling everyone’s fun, there is a big difference between that and the economy actually starting to recover.
Two: We applied the medicine, so stop complaining.
“I am confident that the innovative policies being pursued by the Federal Reserve will facilitate and, indeed, expedite the recovery process,” said the Fed’s Fisher in the same speech in which he forecast the healthy emergence of those “green shoots.” It is pretty much the same message pumped out by central bankers around the world: We have cut interest rates, printed money and pumped up demand. We have a computer in the basement that says when you do all of those things, the economy will start to recover. There is just one snag: What if you have the wrong diagnosis and the wrong cure? Just applying the medicine doesn’t tell us anything, and certainly not that the patient is about to get up and start walking again.
Three: The stock market says so.
Indeed it does. The markets aren’t so much spotting “green shoots” as a whole flowerbed of roses and tulips. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index has erased all its losses from the early part of the year and shows every sign of kick-starting a new bull market. It climbed 13 percent in April, the biggest monthly gain since data for the index started in 1987. Most other major markets around the world have staged similar rallies.
“All the things are in place for the bear market to have ended,” Anthony Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International, said in an interview.
Again, there’s a snag: The stock market doesn’t have any more of a clue about what will happen than the rest of us. It has predicted at least 12 of the last two recoveries, and nine of the last five recessions, to paraphrase economist Paul Samuelson. One consequence of the credit crunch is that we should stop believing the markets are much good at predicting anything. After all, they didn’t see the blow-up in the markets, and that was happening right under the noses of professional investors. There’s no point in imagining the same people can spot a recovery now.
Four: Business leaders are more optimistic. Some of the most respected names in business are blooming with confidence. Those “green shoots” are “turning into daffodils” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim O’Neill said in an interview last week, after raising his forecast for global growth next year.
Consumers want to “move on” from the economic decline, said Stuart Rose, chief executive officer of U.K. retailer Marks & Spencer Group Plc, as if the recession were just some tiresome psychological condition we could just snap out of.
Ignore them. Business leaders are perennially optimistic. It is part of their job. To get to the top of a big company you have to be constantly “breaking new ground,” “pushing the envelope” and “taking things to the next level.” The gloomy realists don’t make it to the board -- even though, of course, they are often right.
The reality is, no one knows where the global economy is going at the moment. We are living through the worst recession since World War II, but much has changed since then. It’s time those “green shoots” were “nipped in the bud.” To deploy a simile from a different part of the garden, “we’re not out of the woods yet.” And we won’t be for a long time.
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